Vanuatu’s Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) programs have become a major pillar of government revenue, generating VT11.4 billion (US$95.5 million) in the first half of 2026. This performance comes despite the country losing EU Schengen visa-free access in December 2024, highlighting the continued resilience of demand for Vanuatu citizenship.

Growing Fiscal Dependence

The figures demonstrate Vanuatu’s increasing reliance on CBI. The government’s 2026 budget expected approximately VT15 billion in annual citizenship revenue, yet more than 76% of that target had already been collected by June.

This strong performance has supported the government’s finances, but it also creates greater exposure to the sustainability and international acceptance of the CBI model.

IMF Concerns and Governance Risks

Despite the record revenue, the IMF has raised concerns about the sustainability, governance, and transparency of Vanuatu’s citizenship program. It previously questioned whether reported increases in revenue fully reflected actual receipts and called for stronger oversight. The government has also been dealing with recommendations arising from a Commission of Inquiry into the Citizenship Commission, while calls for greater transparency remain ongoing.

Demand Shifts Despite Reduced Mobility

The most significant trend is the disconnect between passport mobility and CBI demand. Vanuatu lost Schengen visa-free access in 2024 and UK visa-free access in 2023, yet citizenship revenues have continued to rise. With a minimum contribution of US$130,000 and processing times measured in weeks, the program increasingly appeals to applicants seeking speed, a second passport, and a geopolitical “Plan B” rather than relying solely on visa-free travel. Vanuatu’s performance suggests that CBI demand has shifted rather than disappeared.

The country is benefiting from strong demand despite reduced passport mobility, positioning speed and optionality as key selling points. However, with CBI now accounting for almost 40% of government revenue, the record performance also highlights a growing fiscal dependency and governance risk that could become increasingly important as international scrutiny of CBI programs intensifies.

Summary

CBI contributed approximately 39% of government revenue excluding donor funds, making it the country’s largest identified revenue source and around 37% higher than VAT. The government also reported a VT9.3 billion operating surplus without issuing new bonds. CBI’s share of government revenue has increased significantly, from 21.8% in 2024 to 30.4% in 2025 and nearly 39% in the first half of 2026. At the current pace, annual CBI revenue could reach around US$191 million, exceeding the previous record of US$132.6 million set in 2020.